Assessment of Research Needs for Advanced Fuel Cells by S. S. Penner

By S. S. Penner

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T h e e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y m a r k e t o v e r the p e r i o d 1 9 9 1 - 2 0 0 5 h a s b e e n e s t i m a t e d at about 25, 000 MW; the o n - s i t e m a r k e t s h o u l d c o n t r i b u t e a n a d d i t i o n a l 4 0 % of t h i s e s t i m a t e . C l e a r l y , t h e o n - s i t e m a r k e t i n d e v e l o p e d e c o n o m i e s w i l l b e a s u b s t a n t i a l f r a c t i o n of t h e d e d i c a t e d e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y m a r k e t . T h e p o t e n t i a l i n ­ d u s t r i a l c o g e n e r a t i o n m a r k e t i s a t p r e s e n t u n k n o w n .

T h i s r e s u l t m a y be e s p e c i a l l y t r u e in c o u n t r i e s d e v e l o p ­ i n g t h e i r r e s o u r c e s i n t h e e a r l y y e a r s of t h e 2 1 s t c e n t u r y , f o r w h i c h t h e m o d u l a r , o n - s i t e , h i g h e f f i c i e n c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e F C w i l l h a v e s u b s t a n t i a l a d v a n t a g e s i n t h e a b s e n c e of l a r g e e l e c t r i c a l u t i l i t y n e t w o r k s . Its a p p l i c a t i o n f o r t h i s u s e w i l l p a r t i c u l a r l y o c c u r if m a s s p r o d u c ­ tion, c o m b i n e d with further r e s e a r c h , c a n r e d u c e its c o s t to m o r e affordable l e v e l s .

It i s u n d e r l i n e d b y t h e f a c t t h a t t h e l o w e r of o u r t w o e s t i m a t e s f o r w o r l d w i d e e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y P A F C p e n e t r a t i o n o n a y e a r l y b a s i s ( 9 0 0 0 M W / y ) w o u l d r e q u i r e t h e e q u i v a l e n t of t h e p r e s e n t U . S . a n n u a l P t u s e (-^ 1. 4 X 1 0 ^ t r o y o u n c e s / y ) . W h i l e t h e P t p r o d u c e r s a s s u r e u s t h a t t h i s i s p o s ­ s i b l e , 9 0 0 0 M W / y r e p r e s e n t o n l y t h e e q u i v a l e n t of 4 5 0 , 0 0 0 s u b c o m p a c t v e h i c l e s .

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