By Graham T Allison; Commission trilatérale.; et al
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Because Iran is today at the center of an interdependent world; developments and geopolitical choices of the major 36 Nuclear Proliferation: Risk and Responsibility actors have an impact on all of the others. This is why their relative strengths, motivations, and red lines need analysis in order to better understand the framework within which military action can take place. Iran. Iran's primary national interests lie in the Persian Gulf (Iran's mare nostrum). Above and beyond security, these include maritime export routes for oil, demands on the Gulf states for territory, and reduced oil quotas to obtain higher prices for Iranian oil.
This essay is an attempt to not only analyze the most important facets of a complex and evolving issue but also provide a framework within which to shape policies that will benefit all stakeholders. One factor, and ultimately the decisive one, is the Middle East itself, with its growing financial wealth, population, poverty, and potential for turmoil. It is a truism to observe that the situation in the greater Middle East is volatile, with powerful undercurrents moving in conflicting directions.
Petersburg in July 2006 for the G-8 summit have a great opportunity to avert both the collapse of the nonproliferation regime and a sharp increase in the likelihood of nuclear terrorism. Their agenda should include four urgent undertakings: 1. Make the prevention of nuclear terrorism and the further spread of nuclear weapons an absolute priority. One small nuclear bomb in New York or Moscow or Tokyo would be a world-altering event. For perspective, consider that Al Qaeda's September 11, 2001, attack took 2,986 souls.