Probability and Causality: Essays in Honor of Wesley C. by J.H. Fetzer

By J.H. Fetzer

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Whether the price of beans will exceed $10 per bushel). The element of stability (of mechanisms) is also at the heart of the so-called ex­ planatory accounts of causality, according to which causal models need not encode behavior under intervention but instead aim primarily to provide an "explanation" or I "understanding" of how data are generated. 1 Regardless of what use is eventually made 51, 52 51 52, 52 52 51 51 JJ Elements of this explanatory account can be found in the writings of Dempster (1990), Cox (1992), and Shafer (1996a); see also King et al.

20 21 22 To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of causal models has not been studied formally; it is suggested here as a research topic for students of adaptive systems. An explicit translation of interventions to "wiping out" equations from the model was first pro­ posed by Strotz and Wold (1960) and later used in Fisher (1970) and Sobel (1990). More elaborate types of interventions, involving conditional actions and stochastic strategies, will be formulated in Chapter 4. Such questions, especially those involving the control of endogenous variables, are conspicuously absent from econometric textbooks (see Chapter 5).

We shall see that these three types of queries represent a hierarchy of three fundamentally different types of problems, demanding knowledge with increasing level of details. s. of both equations, are giving up the option of analyzing price control policies unless additional symbolic machinery is used to identify which equation will be modified by the do(P = Po ) operator. 40)), if we draw an arrow from each member of PA toward Xi then the resulting graph G will be called a causal diagram. If the causal dia gram is acyclic, then the corresponding model is called semi-Markovian and the value of the X variables will be uniquely determined by those of the V variables.

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