Technological Risk Assessment by L. A. Sagan (auth.), Paolo F. Ricci, Leonard A. Sagan, Chris

By L. A. Sagan (auth.), Paolo F. Ricci, Leonard A. Sagan, Chris G. Whipple (eds.)

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Sample text

This estimate might come from a pilot study or else experience with a similar substance. To illustrate the utility of optimal design methods, consider the problem of designing an experiment to maximize the expected 95% lower 1imi t for the safe dose obtained from an appl ication of the multistage methodology. This is a reasonable design criteria because the 95% lower 1imit for safe dose cal cul ated from an experiment with this ~xperimentaldesign would still be a true 95% lower limit; however, it would avoid extreme conservatism that might result from a poor design.

1979, Design for low dose extrapolation of carcinogenicity data, Technical Report No. 24, Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, Cal ifornia. Engineeping Risk AnaLysis 49 ENGINEERING RISK ANALYSIS w. E. " Risk is a1wavs associated with an undesirable event which can produce harmful consequences. Risk involves both the frequency of the undesirable event and the severity of the consequences. lJhen we say nuclear reactor risk is too large, we mean the frequency of accidents is too large or the consequences of the accidents are too severe - or both.

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